Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025 | 2 a.m.
The quarterfinals of the first 12-team College Football Playoff wound up a lot more compelling than the opening round.
They still lacked a single upset. Favorites improved to 8-0 straight-up, 7-1 against the spread with last week’s set of games, even though it might not really feel like it because of the finale.
Georgia was the short favorite for the majority of the time leading into its Sugar Bowl showdown with Notre Dame, but late money — including the play in this column — flowed in on the latter. Notre Dame closed a 1.5-point favorite and gifted its backers a relatively sweat-free 23-10 victory.
The lone underdog cover came in Arizona State’s furious rally against Texas that ultimately fell short in double overtime. The Sun Devils — another play in the column — closed +13.5 to the Longhorns but only lost 39-31.
Some team will do what they couldn’t and win outright in a playoff game later this week. Most are expecting an Ohio State vs. Notre Dame national championship on Monday, Jan. 20, in Atlanta, but it can’t be that easy.
Calling for that matchup to get disrupted isn’t exactly bold considering current betting odds imply only a 38% chance that both the Buckeyes and Fighting Irish win.
That preamble might have given away my picks on the semifinal games but find them officially with reasoning below. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. The record picking every game for the year stands at 439-336-9 (157-116-4 on plays, 138-106-2 on leans and 144-114-3 on guesses) after a 29-18 (10-9 on plays, 11-8 on leans and 8-1 on guesses) showing on bowl season so far.
College Football Playoff Semifinal, Orange Bowl at 4:30 p.m. Thursday in Miami: Notre Dame -2.5 vs. Penn State, over/under: 45. Notre Dame lost team captain defensive lineman Rylie Mills in a first-round win against Indiana. It might have lost dynamic running back Jeremiyah Love in a second-round win against Georgia. Love is expected to play against Penn State, but practice reports aren’t encouraging on his condition. The Fighting Irish were already dealing with personnel shortage on the offensive line from a cluster injury endured earlier this season. At some point, all the absences figure to cost them. What more likely place than here with the Irish being forced to play on a short week after the Georgia game was delayed a day? Notre Dame has been better than Penn State on the year, and this line would be completely fair under normal circumstances, but too many minor factors are now benefitting the latter. Lean: Penn State +2.5.
College Football Playoff Semifinal, Cotton Bowl at 4:30 p.m. Friday in Arlington, Texas: Ohio State -6 vs. Texas, over/under: 53.5. For a large portion, if not most of, the season, Texas would have been a small favorite in this game. Even a week ago, Ohio State was only a 1.5-point favorite on the lookahead line. Is a blowout victory over Oregon at the Rose Bowl worth 4.5 points on the spread? That’s as large of a move as you’ll ever witness in a situation like this. And maybe it’s justified. Ohio State has finally looked the part of its reported $20 million roster in the College Football Playoff. If it keeps clicking at that level, Ohio State will run away with the title. But the Buckeyes have been much more erratic on the season as a whole. Texas is one of the few rosters in the nation that can match up from a talent perspective, and it gets to play a semi-home game less than 200 miles north from its campus in Austin. I adjusted Ohio State upward aggressively and could only get to -3.5 with this point spread. Play: Texas +6.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or
