Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025 | 2 a.m.
Eight of the 14 teams to advance to this year’s NFL playoffs were odds-on favorites to make the field coming into the season.
That doesn’t mean the 2024-2025 NFL season was without parity, even if it doesn’t feel like it with favorites having finished the regular season winning a historic 72% of games.
But there were still surprises, especially in the playoff bracket.
A parlay linking the rookie quarterback-led Denver Broncos and Washington Commanders to both reach the postseason, for instance, would have paid 30-to-1 at Circa Sports coming into the year.
Bo Nix’s Broncos were +675 (i.e. risking $100 to win $675) to make the playoffs, the second-longest shot in the AFC behind only the New England Patriots. Jayden Daniels’ Commanders were 3-to-1 to make the playoffs, the third-longest shot in the NFC behind only the New York Giants and Carolina Panthers.
And neither Washington nor Denver wound up as the biggest underdog of wild-card weekend. That distinction would belong to Pittsburgh, which was 2-to-1 to make the playoffs.
Minnesota (+280), Tampa Bay (+160) and the Los Angeles Chargers (+125) are the other three playoff crashers that eclipsed the betting market’s expectations.
Can any of them continue to defy the odds and make a run towards Super Bowl 59 next month in New Orleans? Stay tuned as the pick’em will keep handicapping every game versus the point spread and look to bounce back from a disappointing regular season where I went 126-129-7 overall after a 5-11 Week 18.
Read below for all the wild-card round handicaps. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time.
Plays (46-50-2)
Denver Broncos +9 at Buffalo Bills There’s a misperception that Denver is all defense, but while that was true earlier in the year, its offense has been the better unit lately. The Broncos sit sixth in the NFL with an average of six yards per play the last three weeks despite playing an above-average strength of schedule in the span. That should make them able to hang with the Bills regardless of game script and hard to justify getting more than a touchdown on the point spread.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 vs. Washington Commanders There’s only one below average unit in this game by expected points added (EPA) per play — the Washington defense. The Commanders have particular problems against opposing rush games and top receivers, which is a major problem going up against peaking Buccaneers Bucky Irving, Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan. Washington has gone from undervalued early in the season to now arguably overvalued by virtue of its unsustainable 8-3 record in games decided by seven points or less.
Green Bay Packers +4.5 at Philadelphia Eagles Stock on Green Bay has dipped with a 2-3 straight-up screech to the end of the season, but the trio of losses came by a total of seven points. The Packers have injury concerns, most notably playing without shutdown cornerback Jaire Alexander, but so do the Eagles especially with quarterback Jalen Hurts coming off a concussion. The Packers’ offense gave the Eagles’ defense fits in a Week 1 loss in Brazil, piling up 7.1 yards per play, and could do it without playing from behind this time around.
Baltimore Ravens -9.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers The Ravens are rolling with wins and covers in four straight games by an average of 23 points — including a 34-17 win hosting the Steelers as 7.5-point favorites in Week 16. A two-point adjustment since that meeting might not be enough considering the Ravens are now off the charts ahead of the rest in the league by both EPA per play and the DVOA ratings.
Leans (51-42-3)
Houston Texans +3 vs. Los Angeles Chargers Houston would have never been this large of a home underdog to Los Angeles at any other point of the season. Isolating recent results would indicate that the line is fair, but the Texans have been closer to the Chargers on a season as a whole. Houston’s defense hasn’t fallen off as much as its offense — sitting third in the NFL by both DVOA and EPA per play — and should be able to keep them in the game.
Guesses (39-37-1)
Minnesota Vikings +1 at Los Angeles Rams The widespread opening line of Vikings -1.5 felt fair, and even the move to pick’em was reasonable. But shifting all the way to Minnesota as an underdog at certain sports books feels too aggressive. The Vikings looked flawed in the second half of a 31-9 beatdown loss to the Lions in a Week 18 showdown for the NFC’s No. 1 seed, but that doesn’t invalidate their entire 14-3 straight-up, 12-5 against the spread season.
