Thursday, Jan. 2, 2025 | 2 a.m.
The Tennessee Titans have achieved true betting infamy this NFL season.
At 2-14 against the spread, the Titans currently have the worst against the spread record of any team in the Super Bowl era (the last 59 years) according to ESPN Stats & Information.
They’ll hold onto the negative distinction regardless of the result in Sunday’s game at the AFC South divisional rival Houston Texans, which are a 1.5-point underdog, considering only three teams previously have ever gone 3-13 against the spread.
No team has lost that much money at the betting window since the 2007 Baltimore Ravens, the final year before current coach John Harbaugh took the job.
The Titans haven’t even been close to covering in most of their defeats, as their average point-spread loss has come by 7.7 points per game. They’ve failed to cover, or win, in five straight games entering the regular-season finale.
The NFL is widely regarded as one of, if not the single, most efficient sports betting market in the world. Underperforming to the degree of this year’s Titans arguably shouldn’t be possible.
Tennessee made the controversial choice to fire coach Mike Vrabel last offseason and hire former Bengals offensive coordinator Brian Callahan as his replacement. The move was widely panned as a mistake immediately, and nothing has happened either on the field (where Vrabel went 56-48 to Callahan’s 3-13 start) or the sports book (Vrabel was 55-47 against the spread) to refute that belief.
Read below for my pick on Texans at Titans and every other Week 18 game. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. The overall record for the year stands at 131-118-7 after going 8-8 overall last week.
Plays (45-46-2)
Pittsburgh Steelers +1.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals Pittsburgh didn’t just beat Cincinnati in Week 13; the Steelers completely dismantled the AFC North divisional rival in a 44-38 victory as 3-point underdogs where it racked up a 2.3 yard per play advantage. This sets up a great buy-low on the Steelers after losing and failing to cover three straight against three of the best teams in the NFL (Philadelphia, Baltimore and Kansas City).
Los Angeles Chargers -5.5 at Las Vegas Raiders Las Vegas sure is getting a lot of credit for beating up on Jacksonville and New Orleans the last two weeks, something most teams in the NFL are capable of doing. This point spread will also raise if the pick above is incorrect because the Chargers earn the coveted AFC No. 5 seed — and its accompanying trip to Houston instead of likely Baltimore in the first round — if they win and the Steelers lose.
Minnesota Vikings +3 at Detroit Lions Detroit’s defense is in too much injury disarray to lay this many points to one of the best teams in the NFL. The offense has made up for it in recent weeks but that’s a taller task with Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores likely to cook up some more exotic and therefore challenging looks.
Green Bay Packers -9 vs. Chicago Bears Green Bay coach Matt LaFleur has said his team will go all out against Chicago, and it makes sense with a chance to climb to the No. 6 seed and avoid Philadelphia in the first round of the playoffs (if Dallas also beats Washington). The Bears’ sharpness, if not effort, has been tailing off even before Week 18.
Miami Dolphins -1 at New York Jets This number will soar if Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa surprises by playing through a hip injury. No organization is more dysfunctional than the Jets right now, and dysfunctional franchises are ultimate avoids in Week 18.
Leans (40-38-3)
Dallas Cowboys +4.5 vs. Washington Commanders Defense remains too much of a liability to confidently lay points with the Commanders. Dallas’ players seem to largely, for some reason, want coach Mike McCarthy to come back for another year and therefore could deliver an inspired performance in support of him.
Indianapolis Colts -4.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars This line was shaping up to be at least a point higher before last week’s games when the Colts took an embarrassing 45-33 defeat to the Giants as 7.5-point favorites and dealt with a lot of subsequent fallout. But all the commotion could turn out to be noise distracting from the fact that Indianapolis is the better-coached team in this divisional matchup with the healthier roster.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -13 vs. New Orleans Saints Money has come in on the Saints to push this spread down from -14, but that’s a move difficult to understand. Tampa Bay must win to secure its NFC South title while New Orleans has arguably been the worst team in the league when quarterback Derek Carr is out at 0-6 straight-up, 1-5 against the spread.
New York Giants +3.5 at Philadelphia Eagles All signs point towards the Eagles resting all of their key players. The Giants are terrible but not terrible enough that they should be an underdog against a team of backups.
San Francisco 49ers +4 at Arizona Cardinals Both the spread and total shifted four points after 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy went down with an elbow injury late in a 40-33 loss Monday Night Football loss to the Lions as 3.5-point underdogs. But backup Josh Dobbs has built a career through coming out hot in his first extended action with a team and should do his part to help this game between two middling defenses get over 42.5 points.
Guesses (36-34-1)
Kansas City Chiefs +11 at Denver Broncos The action has brought one-way traffic on Denver, which opened as low as -8 before getting steamed up throughout the week. But Kansas City has enough backups to stay competitive and Carson Wentz could prove to be an above-average backup in an offense directed by coach Andy Reid.
Buffalo Bills -2.5 at New England Patriots This line didn’t budge after the news that the Bills intended to play several key starters including Most Valuable Player-seeking quarterback Josh Allen. Even if the group doesn’t stay in the game long, their inclusion should be worth at least a half point against a Patriots’ team that might want to hang onto the No. 1 overall NFL Draft pick.
Carolina Panthers +8.5 at Atlanta Falcons The Panthers had shown real progress before last week’s 48-14 blowout loss at the Buccaneers as closing 10-point underdogs. They’ve at least grown competent enough offensively, sitting No. 28 in the NFL by both DVOA and EPA per play, that they should be able to hang with Atlanta for a while.
Baltimore Ravens -17.5 vs. Cleveland Browns This is the largest NFL point spread in three years…and it still might not be enough. Baltimore has won four games by this many points already this season, and all but one of them (a 35-14 victory over the Giants in Week 15) were against teams much more formidable than this makeshift Cleveland roster.
Seattle Seahawks -5.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams Depth has been the Rams’ biggest issues for the last couple seasons and it’s hard to see them being competitive in a game between backups. The number has moved accordingly since opening at Seattle -2.5, but the Jimmy Garoppolo-led Los Angeles can’t be considered at anything less than a touchdown.
Houston Texans +1.5 at Tennessee Titans I can’t possibly open the final column of the regular season clowning on the Titans and then pick them laying points, right? It’s hard to know what to expect out of either Tennessee or Houston in this game, but there’s a significant sample warning to never trust the former.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or
