Wednesday, Dec. 25, 2024 | 2 a.m.
When I handicapped the future odds for every division going into the season and made a bet for each, only one choice drew any criticism — the Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC North at +1425 (i.e. risking $100 to win $1,425).
Turns out that was the best bet of all. The divisional column is laced with big misses elsewhere — including horrendous calls on the Dolphins, Jaguars, Cowboys and Saints — but the Vikings have done their part and can make up for all of it.
Minnesota will win the NFC North if it prevails in its final two games, though it won’t be easy hosting Green Bay this Sunday followed by a trip to Detroit for Week 17. The Vikings are now +230 to pull off the feat at William Hill/Caesars, making the play going into the season a shrewd one regardless of the result.
Minnesota remains an unpopular choice to win the Super Bowl, or even get there, at as high as +625 to win the NFC and 12-to-1 to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. But perhaps those odds are inflated given the Vikings control their own destiny to earn a No. 1 seed.
It’s not an easy path, but it hasn’t been all year and the Vikings are still tied with the Lions for the conference’s best straight-up record (13-2) and sit alone with the top against the spread mark (10-4-1).
Read below for my pick on Packers at Vikings and every other Week 17 game. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. The overall record for the year stands at 123-109-7 after going 10-6 overall last week.
Plays (42-43-2)
Indianapolis Colts -7 at New York Giants Ever since their focus appeared to shift towards earning the No. 1 seed at all costs, the Giants have looked like one of the worst NFL teams of the last couple decades. Don’t regret missing out on chances to bet against them. Laying 7 without the extra half-point hook requires laying -120, but that’s a stronger bet mathematically.
Dallas Cowboys +10 at Philadelphia Eagles The drop-off from Eagles starting quarterback Jalen Hurts to backup Kenny Pickett is among the most steep declines in the NFL. The latter seems more likely to start this week with the former in the NFL’s concussion protocol and, if that happens, this current point spread would be significantly too high.
San Francisco 49ers +3.5 vs. Detroit Lions Detroit’s defense is one of the league’s worst units with all the injuries it’s suffered over the last month. The Lions are giving up astronomical yardage to all their opponents and, though weakened by injury itself, the 49ers’ offense has more than enough left to pile up its own production in this matchup.
Cincinnati Bengals -3 vs. Denver Broncos It might be too late this time around, but the Bengals are doing their usual routine of elevating at the end of the year with three consecutive wins and covers. Their offense is clicking at a high enough level to crack any defense, including a Denver unit rated as the best in the league by expected points added (EPA) per play.
Las Vegas Raiders +2.5 at New Orleans Saints For better or for worse — undeniably the latter for local fans hoping for a better draft pick — the Raiders are playing with a lot more motivation than all the other teams toiling at the bottom of the standings. Coach Antonio Pierce is fighting to keep his job and the young NFL hopefuls on his team are battling to maintain their spot to be a part of it. There’s more symmetry in Las Vegas than with a sure-to-be outgoing coaching staff and talent-devoid roster in New Orleans.
Jacksonville Jaguars pick’em vs. Tennessee Titans This spread irrationally moved in the Titans’ direction — reopening at Tennessee -1 after sitting at Jacksonville -1 on the lookahead line — after the Week 16 results when they lost 38-30 to the Colts as 3.5-point underdogs. The final score was flattering considering Tennessee was down 31 points late in the third quarter and got outgained by 2 yards per play despite piling on production once Indianapolis quit playing to focus on draining the clock.
Leans (48-33-3)
Minnesota Vikings -1 vs. Green Bay Packers Minnesota’s metrics fail to explain its position in the standings, but that’s been the case ever since coach Kevin O’Connell took over the franchise. He might be the latest in a line of coaches so above the competition that they deserve a manual adjustment. The Vikings are so well-rounded in every area (defensive coordinator Brian Flores deserves an equal amount of praise) that they find different ways to win, and one should be available to them against a Packers’ team playing on a short week.
New York Jets +10 at Buffalo Bills Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen, who continues to be the Most Valuable Player frontrunner by the betting odds, claims the hand injury he suffered in a 24-21 win over the Patriots as 14-point favorites is nothing to be concerned about. But what else is he going to say? It must at least be something to keep in mind when asked to lay double digits against an occasionally formidable AFC East divisional rival.
Carolina Panthers +8 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Since the start of November, the Panthers have looked more like a middle-of-the-road NFL franchise than a doormat with a 3-4 straight-up, 6-1 against the spread record and respectable -18 point differential. And yet, they continue to be priced like they’re helpless despite a near half-season of evidence to the contrary.
Chicago Bears +3.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks Seattle sits at No. 18 in the league by DVOA and No. 19 by EPA per play; Chicago sits at No. 25 and No. 24, respectively, by the same ratings. In other words, there’s not a massive difference between these two teams and the Bears seemed to find something offensively late — albeit while trailing significantly — in a 34-17 loss to the Lions as 6.5-point underdogs.
Houston Texans +5.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens I’m not interested in fading Baltimore, which looks like the NFL’s most complete team down the stretch of the season, but this high of a number makes it unavoidable. Houston’s defense has climbed to the top spot in DVOA and should have enough athleticism in the unit to slightly halt Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson.
Cleveland Browns +6.5 vs. Miami Dolphins The Dolphins’ struggles in adverse weather conditions aren’t just a lazy narrative at this point; they’re a well-proven fact. No venue is sketchier from a weather standpoint than Huntington Bank Field, where it’s forecast to rain on Sunday. The Browns have looked like the second-worst team in the NFL behind the Giants over the last month, but getting a touchdown here is too much.
New England Patriots +5.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers The Patriots have been unlucky to go 0-4 in games decided by less than a touchdown since rookie quarterback Drake Maye took over. Flip just a result or two and the Patriots would be getting much more due respect and therefore only be getting around a field-goal against a likely playoff bound but flawed Chargers side.
Guesses (33-34-1)
Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers Kansas City is suddenly the healthier team than Pittsburgh, and it’s also been playing better with two straight covers for the first time since Week 6 and 7. Pittsburgh is heading in the opposite direction, having lost two straight games by season-high margins (14 to the Eagles as 5.5-point underdogs in Week 14 and 17 to the Ravens as 7-point underdogs last week).
Arizona Cardinals +6 at Los Angeles Rams The Rams were worth a bet when this unbelievably opened as low as -3, but the three-point move might be an over-correction. The circumstances were much different but it’s difficult to ignore that Arizona pounded this same Los Angeles team 41-10 as 1-point favorites earlier in the season (Week 2).
Washington Commanders -4 vs. Atlanta Falcons Atlanta quarterback Michael Penix got borderline rave reviews for his debut performance in a 34-7 win over the New York Giants as 10-point favorites, but let’s not get too carried away considering the competition. The spread seems right, however, so the best way to sell slightly high on Penix might be taking the under 48 points.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or
