Thursday, Dec. 12, 2024 | 2 a.m.
The game tabbed to be the highest scoring of the season takes the marquee as the headliner of the NFL’s Week 15 slate.
It’s not remotely close to projecting as one of the highest scoring of all-time. The total on Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions has sprung up to over/under 54.5 points throughout the course of the week.
It was only 51.5 on last week’s lookahead line, but both teams then proceeded to play shootouts. Buffalo lost at the Los Angeles Rams 44-42 as 3.5-point favorites in the highest-scoring game of the year so far.
Bills at Rams blitzed past its closing over/under of 50 points.
Detroit contributed to cashing a Week 14 over too on “Thursday Night Football” by outlasting Green Bay 34-31 as 3.5-point favorites in a game with an over/under of 53 points.
Still, this week’s game doesn’t crack the top 20 highest over/unders of all-time per StatMuse. It speaks to the scoring environment trending down in the NFL overall after hitting its peak in the 2018-2020 seasons.
Lions quarterback Jared Goff coincidentally might have participated in the zenith when he led his then-Rams team to a 54-51 victory over the Chiefs in Week 11 of 2018 in a game with a record over/under 63 points.
I don’t have a play on the Lions-Bills total — though slightly lean under — but have two other over/under plays hidden underneath among point-spread picks on every game.
Read below for all the handicaps. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. The overall record for the year stands at 103-98-7 after going 7-5-1 last week.
Plays (38-37-2)
Washington Commanders -7 at New Orleans Saints The betting market has not effectively priced how poor the Saints have been without starting quarterback Derek Carr, who now may miss the rest of the year, considering they’re 0-4 straight-up and against the spread in his absence. The Commanders meanwhile should be refreshed and getting injury reinforcements out of a bye week.
Chicago Bears +7 at Minnesota Vikings Chicago ran into the buzzsaw of a desperate San Francisco team last week in interim coach Thomas Brown’s debut — a 38-13 loss as 3-point favorites — but generally have improved since he took over play-calling duties. The Vikings’ defense isn’t playing to the level it once was and the Bears’ divisional familiarity with the blitz-heavy scheme should keep them competitive here.
San Francisco 49ers -2.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams Despite losing 27-24 as 6.5-point favorites in Week 3, the 49ers completely outplayed the Rams in their first meeting this season including racking up a 1.1 net yard per play advantage. That hasn’t been out of the ordinary when these two teams square off as San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan had covered eight straight — and won all but one of those outright — against Los Angeles’ Sean McVay before sitting his starters in a Week 18 game last year.
Arizona Cardinals -5.5 vs. New England Patriots Arizona’s offense found it difficult to navigate Seattle’s deception-minded defense in a 30-18 loss as 3-point favorites last week. That shouldn’t be a problem against a plummeting New England stop unit that ranks No. 31 in the league by the DVOA ratings.
Seattle Seahawks +3 vs. Green Bay Packers The Seahawks’ power rating is still suppressed by a midseason swoon when they were dealing with a rash of defensive injuries, but they’ve since won and covered in four in a row while shoring up that side of the ball. The cold and wet conditions at Lumen Field should give them an extra home-field advantage this week.
Los Angeles Chargers -3 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers The Chargers should be getting receiver Ladd McConkey and a handful of defenders back from injury this week, while the Buccaneers will could remain without a large chunk of defenders and running back Bucky Irving. Los Angeles has already been the more efficient team on the year and the three time-zone travel from East to West means this number should be -3.5 at minimum.
Leans (36-32-3)
New York Jets -3 at Jacksonville Jaguars The Jets have lost three straight but the defeats have been by an average of four points and they’ve collectively outgained their opponents. They might be a bigger mess than the Jaguars outwardly from an organizational standpoint, but they’re a lot better on the field.
Kansas City Chiefs -4 at Cleveland Browns It looks likely to be rainy and windy at Huntington Bank Field, so the best bet on a main market here might be under 45.5 points. It’s becoming painful to lay points with the Chiefs, which have failed to cover seven games in a row, but the Browns might be the worst team they’ve played and sit dead-last in the NFL by the DVOA ratings.
Dallas Cowboys +2.5 at Carolina Panthers Yes, the Panthers are playing better and now look respectable but the same is true for the Cowboys as quarterback Cooper Rush has settled in. Dallas is No. 26 in weighted DVOA — which gives extra credence to recent results — to Carolina’s No. 29.
Houston Texans -2.5 vs. Miami Dolphins The only way a line this short could make sense would be if a bye was no longer worth anything at all. The break’s value may have diminished over the years with every team in the league investing in better sports science but the rest should still have some impact. The Texans should at least be a field-goal favorite against an evenly-matched Miami side playing for a ninth straight week.
Cincinnati Bengals -4.5 at Tennessee Titans Tennessee has the NFL’s worst against the spread record at 2-11 on the year. The Titans consistently find ways to play below their expectation level and therefore can’t be bet unless a line is egregiously out of whack. This line is not egregiously out of whack.
Guesses (29-29-1)
Indianapolis Colts +4 at Denver Broncos These teams match philosophically in that they would prefer to play a more rushing-centric style at a slow pace, making under 44.5 points worth a play. That game script renders it difficult for either side to pull away and therefore may also make taking the points with the underdog worth consideration.
Atlanta Falcons -4.5 at Las Vegas Raiders This all hinges on who plays quarterback for Las Vegas. The Raiders could keep it close if Aidan O’Connell recovers quickly from a bone bruise that looked much worse, but don’t have much of a chance if they’re counting on backup Desmond Ridder exacting his revenge against his original team.
Buffalo Bills -2.5 at Detroit Lions Detroit has now escaped despite getting arguably outplayed in back-to-back games, a pair of field goal wins over the Bears and Packers. The Lions’ defensive decline is going to cost them at some point, and this looks like a good spot for it to happen up against the odds-on favorite to win the NFL’s Most Valuable Player award, Bills quarterback Josh Allen.
Baltimore Ravens -14.5 vs. New York Giants The days of double-digit favorites being mandatory stay-away sides are dead considering they’ve been a profitable bet for five straight seasons and sit 6-3 against the spread this year. That’s probably not predictive going forward, but it’s enough to mentally save me from backing an already-bad Giants’ team that now has injuries at every position group.
Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers The number is just about right, but the Steelers’ injury list is lengthier than the Eagles’ and includes some of their most important players including receiver George Pickens. The Eagles should have closer to their full-strength roster.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or
