Saturday, Feb. 22, 2025 | 2 a.m.
One of the worst NFL seasons in the history of Talking Points at least wrapped up with the best-ever Super Bowl.
The three betting pieces that ran in this space were close to flawless. The two prop-oriented pieces that counted for the Weekend Wagers bottom line brought in a near $2,300 in profit.
That alone would have been enough to finish a fifth consecutive year of the Sunday Sweats with profit but, alas, the Kansas City Chiefs didn’t hold up their end of their bargain. Even though I didn’t like the Chiefs in the game, I had a 9-to-1 future on them from February 2023 that wound up in the losing column.
So, the 2024-2025 Sunday Sweats finished in the red — full records are at the bottom of the page — but the 2025 calendar year is off to a great start. In addition to mostly winning weeks so far, I also replenished the futures bets with a handful of plays in different sports earlier this week.
It’s always nice to get back to the Weekend Wagers format so let’s go all the way back to the original conceit to kick off this year’s column with exactly five bets on five different sports.
I’ll expand to cover more markets in the coming weeks before the NCAA Tournament but, for now, here are five plays to make that will all settle this weekend.
Read below to find them all. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time with the sports book noted. Plays outside of the column will be linked and tracked in the record at the bottom of the page.
NHL (0-0, $0): St. Louis Blues +115 vs. Winnipeg Jets (BetMGM)
Vegas Golden Knights’ Jack Eichel (9) chases after a loose puck as St. Louis Blues’ Jake Neighbours (63) and Cam Fowler (17) watch during the third period Thursday, Jan. 23, 2025, in St. Louis.
$300 to win $345
Playing without all-but-certain back-to-back Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck in net is a tall enough task for the Jets. But now they’ll also be without top defenseman Josh Morrissey, who drew Norris Trophy votes a year ago. Morrissey is ill and was sick enough to sit out of the 4 Nations Face-Off final for Team Canada on Thursday night. Hellebuyck played for the U.S. and Winnipeg is opting to rest him after picking up four more starts as part of the event. The Jets have the best record in the NHL this year, overachieving largely as a result of Hellebuyck. They’re middling when he’s not in the lineup. I wanted to look for places to bet against Winnipeg over the final stretch of the season anyway, and it turns out the first game is the perfect place to start.
College Basketball (0-0, $0): Gonzaga -4.5 -120 vs. Saint Mary’s (Boyd Sports)
$360 to win $300
The Gaels have been clearly superior to the Bulldogs over the course of the season so far. That means little to me. For betting purposes, it’s more paramount to project who will be the better team the rest of the way. That should clearly be Gonzaga, which has the talent to match up with almost anyone in college basketball. The Zags might finally be starting to show flashes of it with five straight wins, including covers in their last two, after a loss at Saint Mary’s on Feb. 1. Gonzaga closed a 2.5-point favorite in that game but were undone by one of their worst shooting performances of the season. That shouldn’t repeat, and they deserve a much larger adjustment than two points for home-court advantage at McCarthey Athletic Center.
NBA (0-0, $0): Los Angeles Lakers +7 -105 at Denver Nuggets (Caesars/William Hill)
$315 to win $300
This opened as high as Nuggets -9 but unfortunately only stayed that high for less than an hour. The move is a step in the right direction but it’s not enough. These two teams are a lot more equal than the betting market is currently implying. Yes, the Lakers have major defensive issues with their new-look Luka Dončić-led roster. But the Nuggets have dealt with major defensive issues all year. They’re currently No. 18 in the league in defensive net rating, and that’s only after a rise before the All-Star Break. Dončić should be good to go after sitting out the Lakers’ last game, a 110-102 win at the Blazers as 1.5-point favorites on Thursday, and Denver great Nikola Jokić has never scared him before. The two have already had a small collection of memorable showdowns. Tonight’s game at Ball Arena will add to the list.
UFC (0-0, $0): Mansur Abdul-Malik by KO/TKO/DQ -200 vs. Nick Klein (STN)
$400 to win $200
Yes, this is a pretty chalky bet. It’s also the most valuable bet to make ahead of tonight’s Fight Night card in Seattle. Abdul-Malik is a high-level, undefeated prospect with six knockouts in seven career fights. The exception was a submission. The UFC seems to be feeding Abdul-Malik, who’s spent time training locally at Xtreme Couture, the journeyman grappler Klein as a body to add to his resume. He’s highly unlikely to waste the opportunity. As a striker first and foremost, Abdul-Malik should be more like 80% to knock out Klein than the roughly 67% this line implies.
NASCAR (0-0, $0): Ford to be winning manufacturer in Ambetter Health 400 at +220 (STN)
Joey Logano (22) leads Ryan Blaney (12) down the front straightaway during the Pennzoil 400 NASCAR Cup Series race at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway Sunday, Oct. 20, 2024. Logano won the race.
$250 to win $550
Penske teammates Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney and Austin Cindric are almost surely the three likeliest winners of this weekend’s NASCAR Cup race at Atlanta Motor Speedway. There’s a lot of competition behind them but Brad Keselowski, Chris Buescher and Todd Gilliland all figure to have a decent shot too. All six of those drivers named will be behind the wheel of a Ford Mustang. That makes the better than 2-to-1 price far too high. This prop is priced as low as +140 elsewhere. That’s probably a little overblown, but Ford is the likeliest winner over Chevrolet and Toyota on Sunday. I wouldn’t price this prop at anywhere above +175.
2024-2025 Sunday Sweats final record: 95-117, -$513.18
Weekend betting column 2025 to date: 27-21, $3,951
Weekend betting column all-time: 845-949, $39,099.09
Previous pending wagers: New Jersey Devils to win Stanley Cup Final at 16-to-1 ($250 to win $4,000); Reed Sheppard to win NBA Rookie of the Year at 11-to-1 ($200 to win $2,200); Carolina Hurricanes to win President’s Trophy at 15-to-1 ($150 to win $2,250); Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win NBA MVP ($300 to win $1,800); Edmonton Oilers to win President’s Trophy at 6-to-1 ($300 to win $1,800); Ryan Dunn to win NBA Rookie of the Year at 12-to-1 ($190 to win $1,280); Houston basketball to win the Big 12 regular season title at +250 ($200 to win $500); Auburn basketball to win the SEC regular season title at 3-to-1 ($300 to win $900); San Diego State to win the Mountain West Conference regular season title at +450 ($200 to win $900); South Carolina women’s basketball to win the national championship at +305 ($500 to win $1,525); Houston to win the men’s NCAA Tournament at 10-to-1 ($200 to win $2,000); Texas to win the women’s NCAA Tournament at 10-to-1 ($200 to win $2,000); Rory McIlroy to win the Masters at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); Justin Thomas to win the Masters at 30-to-1 ($95 to win $2,850); Tyrell Hatton to win the Masters at 50-to-1 ($2,850); Oklahoma City Thunder to win the Western Conference at +110 ($500 to win $550); Arkansas to win the College World Series at 14-to-1 ($200 to win $2,800); Texas Rangers to win the American League at 12-to-1 ($200 to win $2,400); Cincinnati Bengals to win Super Bowl 60 at 20-to-1 ($200 to win $4,000)
