Eight bets to add to your NFL Week 14 card – Las Vegas Sun News

Saquon Barkley racked up 255 rushing yards two weeks ago against the Rams, the most by a single player in an NFL game in 14 years.

Sunday Sweats was on the under 98.5 rushing yards for Barkley.

That’s representative of how things have gone around here in the two weeks since the last column. And no, I didn’t skip last week out of embarrassment for the Barkley bet — though that would have been justified.

Rather, the Raiders’ game at the Chiefs conflicted — and that brought another loser (Isiah Pacheco anytime touchdown) as well in the gameday preview section.

The column has now fallen deep into the red and it’s going to be a challenge to battle back and extend the all-time profitability streak. Sunday Sweats has never previously finished with a negative bottom line through four years.

A big future did cash — Tarik Skubal to win the American League Cy Young — but that was placed as part of Weekend Wagers before Sunday Sweats took over. It boosts the already-flush annual numbers, but not the football-centric one.

I’ll use that victory as motivation going forward and avoid Barkley this week to try to redeem myself.

Find all of this week’s wagers below. This column is considered an extension of Weekend Wagers and plays from both will be tracked in the record. Non point spread bets placed inside of the weekly NFL pick’em and elsewhere will also be accounted for here. Make sure to check back to lasvegassun.com Sunday for one final bet, on a prop in the Raiders’ gameday section that will also be attached to the Sunday Sweats record.     

Tasty Total (13-11, $380): Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals over 44.5 (BetMGM)

$220 to win $200

Seattle’s offense has diminished to an alarming degree over the last month and Arizona’s defense has risen, so I understand the interest in the under throughout the week. But only to an extent. The line has gone too far. These teams played two weeks ago, and the total was three points higher in the elements at Lumen Field in Seattle. Yes, they ended up easily going under in a 16-6 Seattle win but both offenses performed well enough to put up more points than that. Now playing indoors at State Farm Stadium, I can’t possibly price this game as likely to produce fewer than the average number of points in an NFL game like it’s lined.

Two- Or Three-Team Teaser (4-10, -$1,292): Pittsburgh Steelers -1 and Tampa Bay Buccaneers -0.5 at -125 (Caesars/William Hill)

$250 to win $200

There are no mathematically-sound options on the board this week, but it’s not like those have been yielding riches anyway. So I’ll just make this a glorified moneyline parlay, which works well considering a twist in that category below. The Browns and the Raiders are two of the five worst teams in the league without any doubt. It’s hard to see them putting any real scare into a pair of healthier teams playing for higher stakes in the Steelers and Buccaneers, respectively. Cleveland is playing on a short week off a Monday Night Football loss while Las Vegas is facing back-to-back road games. Too much lines up against the Raiders and Browns to expect them to pull off shockers this week.  

Moneyline Parlay (2-10, -$827.71): Penn State, Atlanta Falcons, San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs round robin (South Point)

$220 to win $1,607.10

I’m always trying to subtly evolve this column, so let’s make history this week with the first-ever Sunday Sweats round robin. Tie these sides together by twos, threes and fours. If this all sounds like foreign language, basically I’m just making 11 different parlay bets at $20 apiece with all possible combinations. The only way to lose the full stake would be if one or fewer teams prevailed. I doubt that’s going to happen. I was looking at about seven different appealing moneylines, and South Point had the best price in town on four of them. That made this the natural choice. And why just stick to the NFL? Penn State at +165 in the Big Ten Championship was just too good to pass up. I make the Nittany Lions’ price against Oregon more in the +120 range. I similarly priced the Falcons lower than +240, the 49ers higher than -190 and the Chiefs slightly higher than -200. It might be the first round robin ever in Talking Points, but hopefully not the last. A winning debut would be nice.

Player Prop (13-10, $334): Kirk Cousins over 244.5 passing yards at -109 (Caesars/William Hill)

$218 to win $200

Everyone is down on the 36-year-old veteran and speculating on a potential injury. That’s exactly when I want to buy. As poorly as Cousins played in last week’s loss to the Chargers, he still eclipsed this total — albeit barely at 245 yards. If the Falcons are to beat the Vikings — and clearly I think that can happen based on the above — it’s going to take Cousins beating them through the air. Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores isn’t going to let Bijan Robinson do the job. And while the Vikings have a strong pass defense, it might not be quite as strong as reputation indicates. Minnesota is 10^th in the NFL in giving up 6.3 yards per pass attempt. Cousins isn’t done yet. He’s can put up one more big statistics line at U.S. Bank Stadium where he’s done it so often before as a member of the Vikings.

Anytime Touchdown (5-9, $296.50): Michael Wilson at +350 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

$100 to win $350

The second-year receiver out of Stanford has become one of the Cardinals’ most reliable weapons. It’s an anomaly that he hasn’t scored in the last four weeks. On the season, Wilson has the same number of red-zone targets — seven — as top receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. and one more catch — five to four. Seattle has been below average defending slot receivers and the middle of the field in general, per the DVOA ratings. Wilson had four catches for 54 yards against the Seahawks in Week 12. He should build on the success by finding the end zone this time around.  

Lookahead Line (9-8, -$17.50): Los Angeles Chargers -3 Even money vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (SuperBook)

$300 to win $300

I described the Buccaneers as healthier than the Raiders earlier, but that’s a low bar. It doesn’t mean they’re healthy overall. Tampa has significant injuries in most of their position groups. Los Angeles may have the higher-profile banged-up players like JK Dobbins and Ladd McConkey, but it’s in better shape than Tampa Bay overall. And that means it should be laying more than a field goal at home against the Buccaneers. The Chargers are also the better team by almost every metric. I made this number Chargers -4, and will be surprised if it doesn’t close higher than the no-juice field-goal line currently available.

Future Finding (0-2, -$400): San Diego State to win Mountain West Conference regular season at +450 (BetMGM)

$200 to win $900

The NFL future markets are pretty beaten into place by now, so let’s keep building our college basketball conference portfolio. The Mountain West is considered wide open with cases being made for several sides, but the team to beat is still the same one that’s prevailed in three of the last six years. The Aztecs have looked awfully dangerous over the last two weeks, going 3-1 straight-up and against the spread with wins over Alabama, Creighton and Fresno State. They’re only going to get better with starting swingman Reese Waters expected to return from injury at some point. If San Diego State hits its potential, no one in the conference will be able to keep pace.

Nonfootball Play (7-5, $795): Michael Chiesa -110 vs. Max Griffin at UFC 310 (Caesars/William Hill)

$275 to win $250

Tonight’s year-end pay-per-view at T-Mobile Arena is chock full of great fights, but this early preliminary bout might be the most appealing from a betting standpoint. These are two long-time welterweight veterans, but Chiesa has fought significantly tougher competition than Griffin. Stock is down on the former The Ultimate Fighter champion with three losses in his last four fights but this matchup is more favorable. Griffin should be an easier target for Chiesa’s wrestling style that most of his recent opponents. Griffin just turned 39 years old, and typically there’s a drop-off around that age. The 36-year-old Chiesa is past his prime and title contention as well but he should still have enough to pick up at least one more big win on a major card.

Sunday Sweats year to date: 53-61, -$731.71

Weekend betting column year to date: 139-162-1, $10,107.66

Weekend betting column all-time: 800-873-5, $41,388.56 

Previous pending wagers: Patrick Mahomes to win 2024-2025 NFL MVP at +750 ($350 to win $2,625); Kansas City Chiefs to win Super Bowl 59 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); Inter Miami to win MLS Cup at +300 ($500 to win $1,500); New Jersey Devils to win Stanley Cup Final at 16-to-1 ($250 to win $4,000); Reed Sheppard to win NBA Rookie of the Year at 11-to-1 ($200 to win $2,200); Dillon Gabriel to win the Heisman Trophy at 14-to-1 ($200 to win $2,800); Dave Canales to win NFL Coach of the Year at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000); Carolina Hurricanes to win President’s Trophy at 15-to-1 ($150 to win $2,250); Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win NBA MVP ($300 to win $1,800); UNLV football to win the Mountain West at 8-to-1 ($200 to win $1,600); Florida State to win the ACC at 3-to-1 ($315 to win $945); SMU to win the ACC at 16-to-1 ($75 to win $1,200); New Orleans Saints to win the NFC South at +425 ($200 to win $950); CeeDeee Lamb to win Offensive Player of the Year at 10-to-1 ($300 to win $3,000); Aidan Hutchinson to win Defensive Player of the Year at 16-to-1 ($200 to win $3,200); Justin Madubuike to win Defensive Player of the Year at 100-to-1 ($25 to win $2,500); Derrick Henry to lead the NFL in rushing at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000); James Cook to lead the NFL in rushing yards at 35-to-1 ($65 to win $2,275); Bo Nix to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 18-to-1 ($100 to win $1,800); JJ McCarthy to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 25-to-1 ($75 to win $1,875); Jared Verse to win Defensive Rookie of the Year at 11-to-1 ($200 to win $2,200); Chop Robinson to win Defensive Rookie of the Year at 20-to-1 ($110 to win $2,200); Penn State to make the College Football Playoff at -125 ($250 to win $200); Dallas Cowboys to win the NFC East at +175 ($300 to win $525); Miami to win the ACC at +250 ($500 to win $1,250); Miami Dolphins to win the AFC East at +225 ($200 to win $550); Baltimore Ravens to win the AFC North at +155 ($200 to win $310); Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South at 3-to-1 ($200 to win $600); Kansas City Chiefs to win the AFC West at -265 ($530 to win $200); Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC North at +1425 ($50 to win $712.50); San Francisco 49ers to win the NFC West at -190 ($380 to win $200); Brian Thomas to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 25-to-1 ($80 to win $2,000);Aaron Rodgers to win Comeback Player of the Year at +175 ($300 to win $525); Dallas Turner to win Defensive Rookie of the Year at +750 ($270 to win $2,025); Edmonton Oilers to win President’s Trophy at 6-to-1 ($300 to win $1,800); All NBA Cup futures; Brock Purdy to win NFL MVP at 12-to-1 ($230 to win $2,760); Ja’Marr Chase to win Offensive Player of the Year at 14-to-1 ($200 to win $2,800);  Washington Commanders to win the NFC East at +135 ($300 to win $405); Ryan Dunn to win NBA Rookie of the Year at 12-to-1 ($190 to win $1,280); Houston basketball to win the Big 12 regular season title at +250 ($200 to win $500); Auburn basketball to win the SEC regular season title at 3-to-1 ($300 to win $900); Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles over 45.5 points ($220 to win $200)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or