Saturday, Jan. 11, 2025 | 2 a.m.
A year ago in the wild-card weekend sweats column, I wrote, “someday, the opportunity for another moneyline rollover will arise again.”
That was in reference to the first year of this column when I rode a moneyline rollover parlay on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers all the way to a Super Bowl victory.
The opportunity for Part 2 is here four years later.
This feels like the Baltimore Ravens’ year to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. They certainly feel more likely to win the title than the betting market implies considering they were the runaway top team in the league by both expected points added (EPA) per play and the DVOA ratings.
Unlike the 2020-2021 Buccaneers, I’ve already locked in bets on them to win the AFC and the Super Bowl, but why not press a little more? Give me $100 on the Ravens to beat the Steelers at -500 at South Point tonight with the intention to keep betting the winnings every round going forward.
Some don’t believe in two-time, possibly soon-to-be three-time, Most Valuable Player Lamar Jackson after a 2-4 start to his playoff career but I think it’s a matter of time before he breaks through. For the sake of the weekend betting column, I hope it’s a matter of weeks.
Read the wild-card version of the Sunday Sweats column below with eight more bets on the usual categories . This column is considered an extension of Weekend Wagers and plays from both will be tracked in the record. Non point spread bets placed inside of the weekly NFL pick’em and elsewhere will also be accounted for here.
Tasty Total (20-15, $700): Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans over 42.5 points (BetMGM)
Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Ladd McConkey (15) catches a pass as Las Vegas Raiders safety Isaiah Pola-Mao (20) moves to tackle him during the first half of an NFL game at Allegiant Stadium, Sunday, Jan. 5, 2025.
$220 to win $200
The Chargers’ defense is overvalued; the Chargers’ offense is undervalued. That’s been one of my driving betting forces over the second half of the season, and it’s paid off in the totals market so far. Los Angeles has seen seven of its last nine games go over. Why won’t there be another indoors at NRG Stadium? The Texans are the sketchy part of this equation as its offense is trending down while its defense has been fantastic all year. But with the way Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is playing with all his weapons intact, I believe he can put up points against anyone. And there’s at least some proof of concept with the Texans’ offense; it’s been highly efficient in the past. The Chargers are the favorite so maybe they get out to a decent-sized lead and force the Texans to pass more aggressively and trip into their best strategy unintentionally. This total looks two or three points too low.
Two- Or Three-Team Teaser (5-15, -$2,042): Houston Texans +9, Buffalo Bills -3, Los Angeles Rams +8.5 at +160 (BetMGM)
$100 to win $160
There are no appealing teaser options this week, so why not throw all the candidates together and hope to get lucky? No two-teamers were available in Nevada that showed anything close to value, so I’ll default on going for the higher payout. It’s hard to feel too confident in Houston with the way it sputtered to end the season but this line would have never been -3 at any other time this year. Boosting it up past a touchdown feels like a decent idea. I actually like the Broncos +9 against the Bills and think they can make it a game, but winning outright is a bridge too far. The Bills should pull away in the fourth quarter. Neither the Rams nor the Vikings may pull away on “Monday Night Football.” It should be an extremely close game at State Farm Stadium and unlikely to finish with more than a touchdown margin either way.
Moneyline Parlay (3-14, -$1,506.18): Baltimore Ravens and Green Bay Packers at +284 (South Point)
Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs (8) celebrates a touchdown during the second half of an NFL football game against the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, Nov. 24, 2024 in Green Bay, Wis.
$100 to win $284
Like the teasers, there aren’t many moneylines that jump out on this relatively small six-game slate. So, I’m just going to approach this section as a way to hopefully get an enhanced price on the underdog that looks most valuable. Baltimore is the biggest favorite on the board, and with good reason. The Ravens could be, and may close, higher than the -500 available at South Point. It’s hard to have the same conviction on the Packers but South Point has the best price in town at +220. They already gave the Eagles a scare in Week 1, and there are reasons why they could be better equipped to do so again in the playoffs. I wanted some exposure to the Packers winning outright and wasn’t sure how to do it. This section provides a way.
Player Prop (17-14, $236): Demarcus Robinson under 26.5 receiving yards -114 (Boyd Sports)
$228 to win $200
Yes, I really dug to find and ultimately land on this one but the line screams of an overreaction. The veteran had a huge game last week with six catches for 72 yards but that was with all the Rams’ primary offensive weapons — Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp and Kyren Williams — resting in a 30-25 loss to the Seahawks. Robinson hadn’t hauled in as much of a reception in the month before the breakout. His usage figures to be more like that it was pre-Week 18 against the Vikings in an elimination game. News of a driving under the influence arrest on Robinson also became public this week. That probably won’t affect his usage considering the incident was in November, but it certainly couldn’t help it.
Anytime Touchdown (9-12, $716.50): Justin Herbert at +470 (Boyd)
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) lunges into the end zone for a touchdown during the first half of an NFL football game against the Las Vegas Raiders Sunday, Oct. 1, 2023, in Inglewood, Calif. (AP Photo/Ashley Landis)
$60 to win $282
The Texans have struggled against mobile quarterbacks all year. Herbert isn’t exactly the first passer anyone thinks of when they hear “mobile quarterback,” but he can get around on his feet. With the stakes at their highest in the playoffs, he’ll be willing to attack an open hole when he sees it. He has 69 carries on the season and two rushing touchdowns. There were a lot of intriguing options for this category, but the inflated price at Boyd ultimately sold me on Herbert. The quarterback is as low as +350 to score a touchdown elsewhere. That’s probably closer to true odds. He’s got to be a more likely scorer than the roughly 18% the Boyd price implies.
Lookahead Line (10-10, -$347.50): Los Angeles Rams +6.5 -105 at Detroit Lions in divisional round (Boyd)
$210 to win $200
It’s important to note that this isn’t really a “lookahead line” but rather a hypothetical line. In other words, the bet will be void if this matchup doesn’t happen. I don’t think it will happen, to be quite frank, but if the Rams upset the Vikings and the other favorites hold, there’s no way they open this large of an underdog at the Lions. Sure, Detroit seems to have it rolling again with three straight wins and covers but its defense remains severely beaten up. The Lions haven’t laid this large of a point spread since a 23-20 Thanksgiving win over the Chicago Bears, and there’s no reason for it to start now against a game opponent. Don’t forget the Rams took the Lions to overtime in Week 1 as a 5.5-point favorite. They’ve gotten significantly healthier since then and have the pieces to put a scare into the Lions. I made this point spread Rams +4 and would expect that’s closer to where the game would end up.
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) gestures during the second half of an NFL wild-card playoff football game against the Arizona Cardinals in Inglewood, Calif., Monday, Jan. 17, 2022.
Future Finding (0-4, -$1,080): Matthew Stafford to lead wild-card weekend in passing yards at 10-to-1 (BetMGM)
$150 to win $1,500
Stafford should be the favorite in this market, not the fifth choice behind Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen and Jayden Daniels. It doesn’t take a math PhD to figure out why either. It’s as simple as seeing the Rams are the underdogs in one of the highest-totaled games of the weekend. That makes for a very likely game script of the Rams playing behind, and Stafford being forced to air it out to stay in the game. He’s won weekly bets like this on multiple occasions over the last few years with the exact same setup. The over/under 48 is technically the second-highest total on the board behind the over/under 50 on Washington at Tampa Bay. But I like the under in that game and, as great as Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels has been, he’s not as aggressive downfield as Stafford and can also rely on his rushing ability. Stafford should never be in double digits in this situation.
Nonfootball Play (9-8, $575): Jacobe Smith by KO/TKO/DQ vs. Preston Parsons at UFC Fight Night at +115 (STN Sports)
$200 to win $230
The UFC cranks it back up for its 2025 schedule tonight at its local Apex facility after the agonizingly long offseason of … three weeks. The fights don’t stop in this era of the promotion, and they’ve been one of the go-tos in the weekend betting column over the years so I figured I should celebrate the return with a play. And who doesn’t love a knockout? This might be the best place for one to happen on today’s card, and it’s available at plus money. Smith is a big-time prospect who has not only the hands to finish Parsons but also the wrestling to ward off his takedown attempts. Smith is riding a streak of three straight knockouts into his UFC debut, and should make it four on the Fight Night preliminary card.
Sunday Sweats year to date: 73-84, -$2,246.18
Weekend betting column year to date: 5-3, $296
Weekend betting column all-time: 822-910-5, $37,199.09
Previous pending wagers: Patrick Mahomes to win 2024-2025 NFL MVP at +750 ($350 to win $2,625); Kansas City Chiefs to win Super Bowl 59 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); New Jersey Devils to win Stanley Cup Final at 16-to-1 ($250 to win $4,000); Reed Sheppard to win NBA Rookie of the Year at 11-to-1 ($200 to win $2,200); Dave Canales to win NFL Coach of the Year at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000); Carolina Hurricanes to win President’s Trophy at 15-to-1 ($150 to win $2,250); Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win NBA MVP ($300 to win $1,800); New Orleans Saints to win the NFC South at +425 ($200 to win $950); CeeDeee Lamb to win Offensive Player of the Year at 10-to-1 ($300 to win $3,000); Aidan Hutchinson to win Defensive Player of the Year at 16-to-1 ($200 to win $3,200); Justin Madubuike to win Defensive Player of the Year at 100-to-1 ($25 to win $2,500); Derrick Henry to lead the NFL in rushing at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000); James Cook to lead the NFL in rushing yards at 35-to-1 ($65 to win $2,275); Bo Nix to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 18-to-1 ($100 to win $1,800); JJ McCarthy to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 25-to-1 ($75 to win $1,875); Jared Verse to win Defensive Rookie of the Year at 11-to-1 ($200 to win $2,200); Chop Robinson to win Defensive Rookie of the Year at 20-to-1 ($110 to win $2,200); Brian Thomas to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 25-to-1 ($80 to win $2,000);Aaron Rodgers to win Comeback Player of the Year at +175 ($300 to win $525); Dallas Turner to win Defensive Rookie of the Year at +750 ($270 to win $2,025); Edmonton Oilers to win President’s Trophy at 6-to-1 ($300 to win $1,800); All NBA Cup futures; Brock Purdy to win NFL MVP at 12-to-1 ($230 to win $2,760); Ja’Marr Chase to win Offensive Player of the Year at 14-to-1 ($200 to win $2,800); Ryan Dunn to win NBA Rookie of the Year at 12-to-1 ($190 to win $1,280); Houston basketball to win the Big 12 regular season title at +250 ($200 to win $500); Auburn basketball to win the SEC regular season title at 3-to-1 ($300 to win $900); San Diego State to win the Mountain West Conference regular season title at +450 ($200 to win $900); Baltimore Ravens to win the AFC at +550 ($300 to win $1,650); Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC at +625 ($240 to win $1,560); Green Bay Packers to win the NFC at 8-to-1 ($200 to win $1,600); South Carolina women’s basketball to win the national championship at +305 ($500 to win $1,525); Ohio State -1.5 vs. Texas lookahead line College Football semifinal; AFC -115 vs. NFC in Super Bowl 59 ($230 to win $200); Super Bowl exact matchup — Baltimore Ravens vs. Minnesota Vikings ($50 to win $1,000); Baltimore Ravens to win Super Bowl 59 at +650 ($200 to win $1,300)
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or
