Thursday, Jan. 23, 2025 | 2 a.m.
The Kansas City Chiefs may or may not get all the calls; there’s no debate that they get all breaks.
A regular season that saw the back-to-back defending Super Bowl champions benefit from a historic run of luck now looks like the precursor to a postseason where things have again fallen their way.
The Chiefs closed as high as a 10-point favorite hosting the Houston Texans in last week’s divisional round, a big enough talent gap that they were able to gut through a mediocre performance to win 23-14.
Kansas City projected as low as a 6-point favorite over the Los Angeles Chargers, the Chiefs’ most likely first postseason opponent before they got upset by the Texans in the wild-card round.
The only team that Kansas City could have faced as an underdog on its home field meanwhile was Baltimore, which also conveniently went down to avoid the scenario.
The Ravens outgained the Buffalo Bills by an astounding 2.7 yards per play last week but had a -3 turnover margin and dropped a tying two-point conversion pass to lose 27-25 as 1.5-point favorites.
Kansas City is seen as far more likely to get to its fifth Super Bowl in six years now as it’s been bet up from a pick’em to as high as a 2.5-point favorite hosting Buffalo in the AFC Championship Game.
The Chiefs are also 2-to-1 to win the Super Bowl, down from 3-to-1 at the start of the playoffs. That currently trails the NFC favorite Philadelphia Eagles at +190 (i.e. risking $100 to win $190), but only because they are a larger favorite this weekend hosting the Washington Commanders laying as much as 6.5 points.
Kansas City is as high as a 2-point favorite against Philadelphia in Super Bowl 59 hypothetical lines. The only way the Chiefs forecasted to possibly be an underdog or pick’em in the Super Bowl was if they faced the Detroit Lions, who succumbed to the Commanders 45-31 as closing 8-point favorites in the divisional round.
The path has cleared about as well as the Chiefs could have wished in their quest to become the first team to win three straight Super Bowls. That’s ultimately going to play a bigger factor in whether or not they pull it off than the week-long arguments about how favorable of a whistle they’ve gotten from the officials throughout their dynasty.
Read below for my point-spread handicaps on the two conference championship games. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. The record picking every game against the spread this season sits at 139-135-8 after a 1-2-1 divisional round.
Plays (47-54-3)
Philadelphia Eagles -6 vs. Washington Commanders Detroit’s defense represented a phenomenal matchup for Jayden Daniels and the Washington offense. Philadelphia’s defense does not. The Eagles have climbed to the top spot in the league by the DVOA defensive ratings, a potential that was readily apparent in their two games against the Commanders earlier this year. Philadelphia collectively held Washington to 5 yards per play — .7 yards per play below its season average. And that figure is only inflated by one of Washington’s many crazy comeback victories when it overcame a two-touchdown, fourth-quarter deficit to beat Philadelphia 36-33 in Week 16. The Commanders were a 4-point home underdog in that game, and looked like they wouldn’t cover most of the time despite facing backup quarterback Kenny Pickett. A two-point swing for going on the road against a much superior team — even with Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts potentially hobbled by a knee injury — is not nearly enough.
Leans (53-42-3)
Buffalo Bills +2.5 at Kansas City Chiefs Last week was supposed to be the rallying point where the Chiefs, coming off extended rest after a bye and Week 18 rest spot, morphed into their postseason form and showed they were still the team to beat. Instead, they looked about the same as they have all season. Namely, they looked underwhelming. Kansas City labored to get to 4.2 yards per play and became the first team in NFL playoff history to win despite getting outgained by 100+ yards and failing to bank a takeaway. The Chiefs’ whole season has been loaded up with statistical oddities in their favor like that. A lot of their overperformance has to do with the magic created by coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes, but it can’t explain all of it. At some point, a break is going to go against them. They can’t afford that going against a statistically superior team for the first time in more than two months — since losing to these very Bills 30-21 as 2.5-point underdogs in Week 11. Buffalo and Kansas City have split their last eight meetings with the former having a +2 point differential in the matchups. Buffalo hasn’t overcome Kansas City in the playoffs yet but it’s arguably never been more well situated to do so than this year.
Guesses (39-39-2)
