Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024 | 2 a.m.
Southern California coach Lincoln Riley said the last two games of the regular season once former UNLV quarterback Jayden Maiava settled in behind center were, “the best we’ve played offensively all year.”
Texas A&M’s offense has been at its best all season when coordinator Collin Klein has gotten creative with dual-threat quarterback Marcel Reed. He should have enjoyed ample time to do so going into the Las Vegas Bowl on Friday at Allegiant Stadium with four weeks since the Aggies’ last game.
As if there weren’t enough reasons to be excited about this year’s first-ever Southeastern Conference vs. Big Ten Conference showdown in the Las Vegas Bowl, the strong possibility of points adds another.
The total of over/under 51.5 points might not go far enough in capturing the potential of these offenses. Take the over 51.5 for the first play of the third edition of the bowl pick’em.
Find several more plays, and handicaps on the next five days worth of bowl games below. Picks and labeled in one of three confidence categories. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. The record picking every game for the year stands at 419-326-9 (150-112-4 on plays, 131-100-2 on leans and 138-114-3 on guesses) after a 9-8 (3-5 on plays, 4-2 on leans and 2-1 on guesses) showing on bowl season so far.
Sports Bowl at 11 a.m. Thursday in Detroit: Pittsburgh -6.5 vs. Toledo, over/under: 51. Toledo was a mess down the stretch of the season, going 2-3 straight-up, 1-4 against the spread. Pittsburgh has lost more players to the transfer portal but could see quarterback Eli Holstein return from injury, which would send this number shooting back toward where it opened at Pittsburgh -9.5. Play: Pittsburgh -6.5.
Rate Bowl at 2:30 p.m. Thursday in Phoenix: Rutgers +6.5 vs. Kansas State, over/under: 50. Neither the Wildcats nor the Scarlet Knights have lost all that much from their rosters since the end of the regular season, but the former had a much stronger one to begin with. Kansas State underachieved while Rutgers overachieved, but that has a tendency to level out during bowl season. Play: Kansas State -6.5.
68 Ventures Bowl at 6 p.m. Thursday in Mobile, Ala.: Arkansas State +7.5 vs. Bowling Green, over/under: 53. The Falcons rank 19th in the nation in success rate; the Red Wolves sit 129th. Arkansas State played a tougher schedule, but not one big enough to make up for that large of a discrepancy. Lean: Bowling Green -7.5.
Armed Forces Bowl at 9 a.m. Friday in Fort Worth, Texas: Oklahoma -3 vs. Navy, over/under: 43.5. Navy is going full bore for this game and is riding some momentum after knocking off Army 31-13 as 6-point underdogs two weekends ago, while Oklahoma has a makeshift roster and even coaching staff. All factors point toward the Midshipmen, but the massive line move from +10 to +3 leaves no value left to be found. Guess: Navy +3.
Birmingham Bowl at 12:30 p.m. Friday in Birmingham, Ala.: Georgia Tech -3 vs. Vanderbilt, over/under: 51.5. Vanderbilt really tailed off with three losses in a row after clinching bowl eligibility with an upset win at Auburn, but it was severely beaten-up. A month off should elevate them to at least Georgia Tech’s up-and-down level, making this game feel more like a pick’em. Play: Vanderbilt +3.
Liberty Bowl at 4 p.m. Friday in Memphis, Tenn.: Texas Tech +1 vs. Arkansas, over/under: 54.5. Both offenses are ravaged by injuries and absences. It’s mostly been reflected with a downtick in the total but one sports book (STN) still has under 54.5 points, which is worth a play. In a low-scoring game, it’s wiser to take the team with more talent. Lean: Arkansas -1.
Holiday Bowl at 5 p.m. Friday in San Diego, Calif.: Syracuse -16 vs. Washington State, over/under: 59. Washington State probably should have followed in Marshall’s footsteps and canceled its planned bowl appearance. That’s how few players and coaches remain at the Cougars’ disposal. The Orange should be able to pick their score. Play: Syracuse -16.
Las Vegas Bowl at 7:30 p.m. Friday at Allegiant Stadium: USC +3.5 vs. Texas A&M, over/under: 52. These teams’ metrics are pretty evenly matched, but USC arguably played the tougher schedule. Texas A&M would have been the choice at the opening price of -2, but there’s not enough separating the two sides for the line to climb over a field goal Guess: USC +3.5.
Fenway Bowl at 8 a.m. Saturday in Boston: Connecticut +2.5 vs. North Carolina, over/under: 53.5. Would the Tar Heels really embarrass themselves in front of their legendary incoming boss, new coach Bill Belichick, by losing to one of the worst football programs in the nation? All joking side, the Tar Heels should have the Huskies outgunned from a roster perspective even with several opt-outs and transfer portal entries. Lean: North Carolina -2.5.
Pinstripe Bowl at 9 a.m. Saturday in New York: Boston College +2.5 vs. Nebraska, over/under: 45.5. This point spread crashed a couple points amid rumors that Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola was looking to transfer but never corrected once those talks proved to be unfounded. Boston College found a rhythm at the end of the year with an improved defense and on-form passing game, but Nebraska also seemed to find something in pairing Raiola with new offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen. Lean: Nebraska -2.5.
New Mexico Bowl at 11:15 a.m. Saturday in Albuquerque, N.M.: Louisiana +11.5 vs. TCU, over/under: 58. The Ragin’ Cajuns have a real shot if either of their injured quarterbacks, Ben Wooldridge and Chandler Fields, returns but there’s been no reporting of that happening. That makes it best to wait on this game, but the Horned Frogs are the only way to look at the moment. TCU can score, and Louisiana won’t be able to keep up if forced to start a third-string freshman passer. Guess: TCU -11.5.
Pop-Tarts Bowl at 12:30 p.m. Saturday in Orlando: Iowa State +3 vs. Miami, over/under: 55.5. Miami’s Cam Ward, who led the nation with 37 regular-season touchdown passes, had one of the best quarterback seasons that will never be remembered by virtue of the Hurricanes getting upset in two of their final three games. But he gets one more suspect-at-best pass defense to attack here on his way out and sounds motivated to finish a disappointing season strong. Play: Miami -3.
Arizona Bowl at 1:30 p.m. Saturday in Tucson, Ariz.: Miami (Ohio) -3 vs. Colorado State, over/under: 42.5. The RedHawks eventually got it together to reach their second straight MAC Championship Game but looked diminished early in the season while going 1-3 straight-up and against the spread in nonconference play. The Rams aren’t anything special, but they probably align more talent-wise with RedHawks’ opponents like Northwestern and Cincinnati than the Mid-American Conference teams. Lean: Colorado State +3.
Military Bowl at 2:45 p.m. Saturday in Annapolis, Md.: East Carolina +6 vs. NC State, over/under: 58.5. East Carolina took off once Blake Harrell stepped in as interim coach for the second half of the season, and he’s since been retained as the permanent man in charge. This has always felt like one-sided rivalry that means more to the Pirates than the Wolfpack despite the campuses only being an hour apart. This year, the former has the players to match up with the latter and threaten their first win in their on-and-off series since 2016. Play: East Carolina +6.
Alamo Bowl at 4:30 p.m. Saturday in San Antonio, Texas: BYU +4.5 vs. Colorado, over/under: 54.5. Colorado has been a cash cow all season and was in the running for the College Football Betting Awards‘ Team of the Year at 9-3 against the spread. Because coach Deion Sanders has been able to keep everyone together for one last hurrah, it’s hard not to run it back at the betting window too. Most of the value, however, is gone with this number being bet up from as low as -1.5. Lean: Colorado -4.5.
Independence Bowl at 6:15 p.m. Saturday in Shreveport, La.: Louisiana Tech +17.5 vs. Army, over/under: 44. Louisiana Tech had to reassemble its team to participate in this bowl game after Marshall pulled out, so some skepticism about how prepared it will be to play is warranted. Army is a much surer commodity but plays at one of the nation’s slowest paces and should be hard-pressed to cover this high of a number in any game. Lean: Louisiana Tech +17.5.
Music City Bowl at 11:30 a.m. Monday in Nashville: Iowa +2.5 vs. Missouri, over/under: 40. The Tigers were the easy side when it looked like the Hawkeyes would have to resort to starting walk-on quarterback Jackson Stratton, but this game should be more competitive as Brendan Sullivan is reportedly back. Still, Missouri’s overall roster quality is a little higher and it therefore should be laying at least a field goal. Lean: Missouri -2.5.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or
